Friday, May 23, 2025

Strange Market Conditions, Middle and High End outpacing Entry Level

Our local market conditions over the last two years has clearly and concisely shown an increase in the median home price for Clark County. However the entry level market has slowed down substantially. A house that would easily sell for $500k two years ago now sits on the market for several months or the inpatient owner lowers the price. Meanwhile the middle and top of the price range remains hot largely due to a lack of inventory and increased demand from migrating Portlanders, and some Californians. 

I have beat this to death over the last couple years, but the reality is the middle and high end market loves the fact that they are sitting on a 3% mortgage and they just don't want to sell. People that have $700k or more to spend will outbid others to get the house in the upper end low inventory scenario we see now.

This is the weird state of affairs where the top half of the price range is in higher demand than the bottom. This is rare probably less than 10% of the time. I believe we are about to shift away from this trend as wages have crept up a bit and entry level buyers are returning to the market. For now, the top half rules the roost and it won't last long so those of you sitting on a house worth more than $600k, now could be the time to sell. There is a ceiling on how high end, super lux properties are still going to sit awhile since people with more than $2 million to spend remain few and far between.

Another anomaly in the local market is condominiums. The local condo market is getting negative pressure from across the river in Portland. This is particularly strong in the city center of Vancouver. Portland's South Waterfront and to a lesser degree the Pearl District is seeing a virtual glut of urban condos and prices have fallen sharply in the entry level Sub $400k range. This has made the now very popular Downtown Vancouver a more expensive alternative, whereas we used to be the value leader in city condos.

This soft entry level market will almost certainly, barring a major economic downturn, turnaround and return as the driving force of the housing market. Any first time homebuyers that qualify for $400-$500k should saddle up and go get a house before we return to a busy low end. It is already showing signs of recovering.

Strange market anomalies are often the best time to act, not always, but often, I believe for entry level buyers in the sub $500k range and upper end seller's between $700k-$1.5m, now is the time.

  

Friday, May 16, 2025

Homes Don't Appreciate, Land Does.

Yes you read that right, homes do not appreciate, in fact they depreciate. Many of you may already be thinking, this guy put whiskey in his coffee this morning ;) No just good ole black coffee today friends. A house is a physical structure and physical structures depreciate for various reasons. Of course the primary source of depreciation is wear and tear. But homes also lose value as they become outdated either in fashion or practical use. This is why a 50 year old house in very good condition but not updated will fetch far less than the exact same house that has had the windows upgraded, the kitchen remodeled, and modernized, etc. This upgraded house did not appreciate it was brought up in value by spending money on it. Appreciation is when the value rises due to external factors mostly involving demand. 

Land does not depreciate, it does not "wear out" and in general it never goes out of style. Its value can rise and fall with external factors such as demand or damage such as environmental damage or neighborhood decay. The thing that pushes home values higher is demand for housing but older homes will not appreciate as fast in general as newer homes because the older homes become less desirable as they often have minor to major functionality issues, designs that are no longer popular, and they are more likely to need major repairs than a newer home. This makes them generally less attractive to buyers. 

Sometimes a trend happens that makes a certain era of homes desirable again. A few decades ago it was all the rage to take Victorian style homes and fix them up into gorgeous homes. More recently there was a hipster movement to buy up mid-century homes and fix them up. Mid-century homes were among the least "sexy" designs ever, but they were practical and functional. 

As an example I will use my own home that I bought 23 years ago. My house was 10 years old at the time and priced about 10% less than a similar brand new home in the area. My house was basically all original when I bought it. Today it is about 25% less than a comparable brand new home. It's now 33 years old. I have spent tens of thousands of dollars modernizing it with sleek wood flooring, fresh paint, new roof, new furnace, updated kitchen, and baths, etc. But all that money hasn't really let me keep up with values of newer homes because the floor plan and layout reek of early 90s. I have 8 foot ceilings and there really isn't a cure for that. Now in all fairness I can sell this house today for more than three times what I paid for it back in 2002. I have no complaints, but I did spend at least $150,000 on keeping it updated over the years. Had I just left it all original but also kept it in good shape, I would be at a 40% disadvantage versus a similar brand new house. If I had let it go and it needed expensive repairs, then I would be at least 50% under the value of a comparable new home. 

What does all this mean? Well the land underneath my home has appreciated dramatically but my actual house has depreciated drastically despite my best efforts. The moral of the story here is to keep your home in good shape even if you can't afford to modernize it, take good care of it. When looking to buy, pay attention to the neighborhood, try to buy in the best looking neighborhood you can afford, but go ahead and buy the worst house in the best neighborhood. Neighborhood degradation reduces demand and inhibits overall property appreciation. Neighborhood is way more important than the house itself when it comes to property values and potential appreciation. 23 years ago my wife and I had our eyes on a lovely home in a neighborhood nearby. It was built in 1999 and was at the time very sleek and modern. It was a little better house than the house we have now but the same size and bed bath count. It was just a tad bit more expensive, but was situated on a much smaller lot. We ended up buying our house because I felt the neighborhood would hold up over time better. The neighborhood for the first house was fairly new, but it was cramped with narrow streets and small lots. The house I bought had wide streets and larger lots. Both neighborhoods seemed comparable at the time. As the decades rolled by the my neighborhood remains more or less the same whereas the other neighborhood became filled with rentals, and clutter and basically fell apart. My house would almost certainly sell for more today than that house would, had I chose it. I likely would have moved out of the neighborhood 10-15 years ago. 

In general if you want a "deal" on a house you generally want to buy an older home in good shape with outdated decor in a nice neighborhood, as nice as you can. If the neighborhood is older and yet still nice, that is often better than a brand new neighborhood that already feels crowded. The older neighborhood has weathered the storms of turnover and maintained itself, whereas the newer neighborhood can be a gamble unless it is strongly regulated by an HOA or it's a very expensive neighborhood. As a 25+ year veteran agent I have become very good at detecting neighborhoods with a high chance of stability or instability. This is a critical factor for long term success in your chosen home.

Remember as the house ages it loses value, the land is what drives the appreciation and that is mostly driven by local demand. Local demand can be external to the city itself, but also internal as a desirable neighborhood or area of town. Desirable areas can fluctuate over time but some neighborhoods are always popular. These are ideal spots to own for an extended period of time. 


 

Friday, May 9, 2025

Washington State Tinkering with Rent Control

The state has decided to intervene in the high cost of rental units in Washington. As is typical with these types of legislative bills, the results are nearly always worse. Rent control invariably leads to investors bailing out of the local market often selling off assets. The short term effect is usually a slower rate of rent increases but the longer term result is a lack of inventory. 

The state has been the largest culprit in rising costs due to the ever increasing mandates for waste water control, green efficiency, and local infrastructure improvements that rapidly raise the construction costs of new units. The entire West Coast has been caught in this trap. Yes we all want greener projects, and better environmental outcomes, but that comes at a cost and that higher cost results in exclusive rents that are out of reach of lower income and even middle income families.

If the state actually cared about this subject, which I fear they do not, they would allow low income properties to be built with waivers for many of the strict regulations and government development fees. That could provide thousands upon thousands of new units aimed at lower income families. The state however is not interested in waiving these development fees because if we are really honest, it's a cash cow for Olympia, Salem, and Sacramento.

In all fairness, many of these development costs are imposed at the local level. Cities and Counties rake developers over the proverbial coals with excessive fees that all get passed on to the buyers and or renters of these properties. The legislature could certainly pass a law that requires local governments to provide discounts or waivers for projects that will provide low income access to real estate in the form of sub-market rents or regulated sub-market pricing for purchase.

Whether you are on the left or the right, affordable housing is probably something you have some concerns about. Let your legislature know, that rent control has failed nearly every time it's been tried and they need to DO BETTER.