Home Prices Rise Despite Less Demand, What Gives?

One of the biggest drivers in price is in fact supply and demand. But the cost of building new homes is going up mostly due to government over regulation. Builders continue to face new laws forcing compliance with various environmental, local infrastructure, and safety that all seem great but absolutely increase the price of construction. Many builders are pulling out of over regulated areas like the three West Coast states. Despite having fewer buyers in the market place, there is also fewer new homes and this drives the price up on the remaining available resale homes. 

The median home price in Clark County currently sits about $550,000 depending on the source of data. That median price buys a pretty solid house, such as a 30 year old two story 4 bedroom house with 2000 SF or a really nice 30 year old ranch house with 1700 SF. New homes similar to these on any kind of decent sized lot are at least $100k more.   

Younger people struggle to afford to buy homes largely based on social tendencies more than actual costs. Homes have appreciated at significantly more than inflation in general over the last 40 years and many YouTubers point this out. But I was a 20 something in the 1980s and can assure you that buying a house back then was more difficult that it is today. Interest rates in the 1980s started out at 18% and dropped into the 11's by the end of the decade. That's a huge hurdle. But the 1980s had much higher costs on most things we buy today. Where the modern homebuyer faces higher education costs, higher healthcare costs, but lower costs on gasoline, utilities, food, electronics, and appliances. We did just come off a high inflation period that has brought some of these "lower" costs to parity with the 1980s but we also are seeing pretty strong wage increases in recent years that match it.

The general gist here is to stop complaining about how hard it is to buy a home, it has ALWAYS been hard to buy a home. I see people complaining about their inability to afford a home and then realize they have a brand new $1000 phone, a brand new car with $500 payment, they are drinking 4-5 energy drinks every day at $2-$5 a piece! They are wondering where all the money goes? 

Buying a house has always required some difficult penny-pinching and that still holds true today. I help young people all the time to get into a house, It is rarely easy unless that young person managed to find a six-figure job, but it isn't as hard as the internet is telling you.

Fed Hints at Reduction for Next Month

There has been tremendous pressure for some easing by the Fed. The Trump Administration has been very vocal about getting some relief on rates. The economy is not the roaring lion it was several years ago when the Fed made some aggressive moves to tighten the money supply. 

I have not been as concerned about Home Mortgages as I have been about the availability of financing for big projects that help boost the local economy. Sure a little softening for my typical home buyers will be greeted with a grin, but more importantly is opening up capital for larger commercial and residential projects that seemed otherwise be stalled waiting for funding. 

Vancouver's Downtown and Waterfront have several very large projects that have made it through all the preliminary approvals for design and zoning. These projects will be valued in excess of $500 million which is a direct injection into the local construction trades and tax coffers for the city. 

The Fed meets next month and there has been some suggestion that a rate drop is likely coming. Should we see some easing we could see mortgage rates dip a little as well. Rates tend to be running in the mid 6's for quality borrowers and a dip to the lower 6s will have a positive impact on the local real estate market. 

Sales volume has been light over the last 24 months and we are seeing a stead increase in inventory as well. Buyers are actually in strong positions right now aside from qualifying. We a reduction in rates the number of qualified buyers will increase and could very well jump start the sluggish sales numbers.

Here's to a solid 4th quarter!

Fed Stays Put on Rates

(Also published on "Retire to Washington State")

The Feds met at the end of July and decided again to stand with the current rate. This annoyed the President, but I am feel like they did the right thing. That runs counter to my own financial prospects as a slight dip in rates could put energy into the real estate market that would directly benefit me personally. But the federal government continues to spend money like drunken sailors and it hasn't;t mattered whether it was the R's or the D's neither can seem to really cut spending. All we get are clever accounting tricks rather than real cuts. 

When the government prints money it tends to artificially inflate the economy in a somewhat unnatural way. The economy is not as hot as the President says it is, but it is not slow enough to justify rate cuts at this time. That is a bit of the ironic part of the desire for lower rates while claiming the economy is hot. You don't get lower rates in a hot economy in a normal universe. 

The rolling 54 year average for mortgage rates sits at 7.71% according to Freddie Mac, the leading tracker of mortgage rates. We are well below that average right now at about 6.8% Even if we do a rolling 30 year year average to get the 1980s high rates out of the equation we still are close to average right now. It has been a difficult transition for younger home buyers that never saw rates this high during their adult lives. But it is a bit more psychological than economical at this point. 

The economy is good right now, not great, not terrible just OK, and perhaps the Fed is on the right track. Having a slight downward adjustment would have been nice as a gesture to get housing back on track, but I do not expect the Fed to make any substantial adjustments. When the current chairman's term is up next year, I would not be surprised to see him replaced. That new chairperson might decide to bend to the President's will and cut rates a bit. That would likely happen mid-2026. If the economy starts to stagnate before that, the current Chair, Jerome Powell might adjust rates toward on his own terms.

Buyers looking to buy in this market will find willing sellers. The best "deals" are on larger two story homes that are mostly owned by aging boomers looking to downsize and get rid of the stairs. Younger buyers can get a lot of house, like a 2500 SF 4 or 5 bedroom home 20-30 years old at $600-$700k. The price per foot on these now unpopular styles of homes is only $240-$260 per foot. Compare that to the typical 1250 SF ranch house that fetches $450k and a whopping $360 per foot. Saavy young people can rent rooms out in the large house to offset the mortgage. Yes you have to qualify in the first place, but you can go in halfsies with someone if need be. There is risk in these arrangements but it could get you in the housing door where you might not otherwise be able to be. 

Peek you head up over the box lid and look around, there are some opportunities out there for clever buyers.