Gentrification Revisited

original published 11/30/2018, by Rod Sager

Gentrification has become a 'dirty' word in some circles. For those unaware of this term, it is used to describe the redevelopment of older run-down areas into more vibrant and affluent neighborhoods. There are always going to be growing pains when this type of real estate turnover happens.

The funny thing about it is this: when neighborhoods are run down they tend to produce less income and thus less taxes for local governments. They also typically have a higher drain on local services funded by those taxes. People are often complaining about all the issues associated with these types of neighborhoods, increased crime, vagrancy, drugs, etc.

After the neighborhoods start to get redeveloped the local area often becomes more expensive and sometimes people that live there can no longer afford the rents / prices. This creates a whole new layer of complaints from constituents.

When old industrial areas are converted to residential, this is less of a problem since no one "lived" in the abandoned industrial areas. One might think of Portland's South Waterfront or Vancouver's new waterfront. But ultimately these areas create a sphere of affluence around them putting upward pressure on rents and property values in nearby neighborhoods.

It can become the classic scenario of pleasing one group by pissing off another. For local governments chasing tax revenue the choice is easy, gentrification benefits the community at large so long as the local elected officials use the new found tax wealth to benefit the community at large. Sometimes that happens other times not so much.

In general Vancouver USA will benefit from the gentrification of Downtown and surrounding areas. What is most important for those who feel they may be on the pricing bubble is to buy while you can. As values push upward, those who bought will benefit greatly where as those who continue to rent will find themselves on increasingly thin ice. Soon they who choose to rent will become the voices against gentrification. Yet often they were the voices against the run down, crime infested neighborhoods that are being fixed.

The moral of this tale is that if you want to be able to stay in an area that is rising up, you better buy while you can. In these rising value scenarios, renters have to move, owners choose to move. That is a big difference.

Urban condos see a spike in listings, will the sales follow?

I published this article on Urban Living in the 'Couv' Monday. Urban condos are a big part of my real estate marketing efforts and as such I take a special notice to market 'wind shifts'. I figured I be well to inform the readers here of what's happening Downtown.

Originally published in Urban Living in the 'Couv', July 8th, 2019, by Rod Sager 

There is no shortage of units in Vancouver's urban condo market. New ones come active each week but nearly as many go pending or close as well. This is good activity. The days on market is dragging just a bit, but it seems sellers are starting out high on price and coming back to the market over a few months. Sellers pricing the units well from the start are seeing a quick sale.

You can see a spike in listings for June that outpaced the spike in closings. I'll be watching to see if the local market can absorb these new units in a reasonable time period. I think the listing spike likely came after sellers on the fence saw good activity in the spring and decided now is the time to sell. Summertime in Downtown is a lot more exciting than winter as the festivals, concerts and other fun stuff like the Farmer's Market is a big draw. The figures above are for condos in Downtown only so this does not include areas like Columbia Shores, Tidewater, or Shorewood.

The $500,000 to $750,000 price range is the only range that seems under-represented in terms of available inventory. Recent units in Viewpoint and Frontier in that range sold relatively fast and new inventory has not filled the void. Above $750,000 has ample inventory as does the entry level units like those found at the Academy Square and Parkview projects.

The waterfront project continues to build new developments, but the only condo project actually under construction is Kirkland Tower and those will be very high-end units mostly well above $1 million. Another proposed condo building is slated for Block 16, that is also right along the water so I am presuming those will be upper end units as well. That building however is proposed to have double the number of units as Kirkland so they may be priced in a lower range, yet likely still in the $750,000 plus market. That is just my best guess there is no real published data on the Block 16 project. The other residential projects going in are all apartments thus far.

The lack of actual condos on the waterfront could certainly be helping the condo market downtown as the area continues to see economic expansion and significant improvements to enhance the living experience. The success of the various apartment buildings such as Rediviva and Riverwest, both complete and available now, could spark developers to roll the dice on condo projects along the new waterfront. These two apartment projects feature units with rents from $1,800 to $4,000 per month and there are a total of 280 units. Income required to support $3,000-$4,000 in rent is good enough to support a condo well above $500,000.

I believe the condo projects proposed and planned for the waterfront are taking a wait and see stance to monitor the success at Rediviva and Riverwest before committing to expensive condo projects.
The City of Vancouver and Gramor need to focus on bringing some high paying employers into the downtown, waterfront, and Port of Vancouver to help support more residential development, while the economy is still strong. Jobs are very important and there are plenty of companies looking to expand in and/or into our region. The waterfront project will be easy to fill with people should we add another 5,000 good paying jobs close in. Nobody save for the occasional traffic masochist, likes crossing the bridges to work.

Things are solid on the Vancouver Urban Living scene.

Landmark Condo Legislation Passed

The State of Washington recently passed a serious update to the 1989 Washington Condominium Act and subsequent law surrounding it. This new legislation takes effect on July 28 of this year. The new law or revisions to existing law depending on how you look at it, focuses on the broad legal language used in the past. It is designed to eliminate some of the frivolous suits brought against builders without destroying the basic safety net of law protecting condo owners when a project has serious flaws.

The language is the key. Prior to this new legislation, it was too easy to open suit for simple problems and now the state has used more clarifying language to identify serious issues rather than trivial ones. This new law should bode well for developers planning high-rise projects on Vancouver's amazing waterfront.

The real problem with all these stupid suits is the fact that they can take years to conclude and during that time units often become unfinancable leading to homeowners struggling to sell or refinance their units. Many condo owners over the years have been trapped during lengthy litigation. The revisions to Washington State law are intended to minimize these so that trivial suits are no longer filed against.

Let the construction begin...