Friday, August 18, 2017

Housing and Jobs in Symbiosis

Our local housing market, like that of many areas, has been in a state of an abrupt climb in price. This has been largely driven by low rates and a short supply. Our area is also experiencing an influx of "migrants" from other states seeking to soak up the delicious Pacific Northwest. This however is not enough to sustain the rapid run up in home values.

Good paying jobs must be in abundance for the upward mobility of pricing to continue. We are starting to see a bit of a slowdown in the increase of valuations and frankly this is a healthy trend. What the area needs now is an increase in HIGH-PAYING jobs. Not just jobs, but good jobs. Factories, High-Tech, etc.

This area has a good bit of these, but demand is stripping away at supply for high-quality jobs as new people flood into the area. At some point housing will take a hit and it may be sooner than later. Generally a large housing crash needs more than just typical market trends. The events of 2008-09 were driven by major economic forces well beyond the normal scope of real estate trends and fluctuations. I do not see any major corrections on the near horizon but I do see a softening in the seller's market.

By this time next year we may be in a near neutral market with modest, healthy appreciation and sellers a little more willing to work with buyers. The current high median resale value is pushing many buyers out of the marketplace, and that will eventually erode the excessive demand.

Without an influx of new higher-paying employment opportunities the demand will falloff faster and if if falls too fast, that can lead to a buyer's market. Every local government agency should be hyper-focused on creating jobs int he private sector. Private sector jobs are good for every industry including the real estate market.

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