Friday, March 20, 2020

Virus versus Housing

Last week I mentioned that the Wuhan Corona virus and associated economic issues might lead to an influx of cash for real estate. That has not materialized yet. Bonds, Gold, Hard Money, all of the normal flow points for equities in distress are also down. That means the wealthy "market makers" are holding onto cash. This is very surprising to me because there are few if any places on this planet where cash is earning money, in fact in many countries cash COSTS money.

I believe that investors are genuinely spooked by this virus and are waiting for the cases to start declining rather than continuing upwards. Once the dust settles they will likely move that cash back into equities, bonds, gold or where ever they think the best opportunity is. Until that happens mortgage interest rates will continue to climb, the stock market will remain flat or possibly dip lower. We really have to wait to see what the "big financial fish" do before we can get a handle on the long term market effects for real estate and other sectors.

Locally our housing market hasn't reacted that much to this condition. There does seem to be a tad less buyers out and about house hunting, but well priced homes seem to be getting traction despite the doom and gloom. Hopefully Washington's governor will not go too far with the draconian wand like they have in California, Oregon, and New York. Yes, we need to keep people safe, but there are also practical limits to this thing and I believe the aforementioned states have already tread into those murky waters of over reaction.

That said, we should all be mindful of the call for some social distancing and limit excursions to solo activities and necessary outings. Looking at houses is necessary :)

 

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