Market has become a mixed bag...

June is the start of the summer season for real estate and sellers that want to move out this summer in time for a new school year or just during the fair weather, now is the time to list. Typically the local market sees a modest boost in activity during the summer months and that can be good for both buyers and sellers. Sellers get a few more buyers looking and buyers get a few more houses to consider. It's a good thing all around in a market that has tightened up especially int he sub 400k range locally.

Despite what people may hear watching local and national news outlets, not every sector of our market is a raging seller's market. In the median to sub-median price ranges under $400k seller's are controlling the market with multiple offers and little room for negotiation by buyers. Seller's are still in a favorable position on homes priced up to $500k but above that inventory starts to get flush.

Clark County is sitting on 6-7 months of inventory in the $500 - 750k range which is neutral leaning a bit towards buyer's favor. From $750k - 1M things get worse for sellers with roughly a year's worth of inventory and buyer's are in control. Above one million dollars we have a bloated inventory that would take more than four YEARS to deplete if no new listings are added at the current rate of consumption. Seller's in this price range are truly at the mercy of buyers. 

News media outlets tend to focus on the entry level and mid range prices that are still very hot, but many sellers in the upper range are a bit disillusioned about the market and some are shocked to find unfavorable conditions. This bodes well for entry level and mid range sellers that can still get top dollar for their small house and capitalize on a flush inventory for their larger move-up home.

The real estate market is a moving target and sellers are wise to consult a local pro with experience in the neighborhood they live in. Real estate is a local market and conditions can vary widely between price ranges, housing type, and location.

The Strongest Offer Isn't Always the Highest Offer

Sometimes a seller is faced with the desirable dilemma of having multiple offers on their home. Initially the tendency is to think the highest offer is the best. Generally that would be true, but not always. If the seller is trying to move to a new house they are purchasing they have to think about the big picture. If the sale fails, then that could cost them money on the house they are moving into or even cause that sale to fail. Sometimes the best offer is the one with the least obstructions. That all cash offer with a five day inspection period and two week close might work better for the seller than a USDA financed offer with a ten day inspection and a 60 day close that's $5,000 higher and right up against the buyer's maximum approval.

Usually the highest offer is the one the seller takes but there are times when a "cleaner" offer that is a little less money is the better route for the seller. In this seller's market, buyers should try to structure their offer to suit the seller's needs. The buyer's agent is well advised to talk to the seller's agent a try to figure out what the seller is looking for in an offer. Not so much the dollar amount but the terms. Sometimes sellers have a natural inclination to refuse to pay closing costs for a buyer. Even though an offer can be structured to net the seller the same amount he wants, some sellers have illogical or emotional reasons for not taking a particular offer that is otherwise very strong. In a multiple offer scenario the buyer may not get a second chance to present the best offer possible or to modify terms to suit the seller's idiosyncrasies.

In this fast selling market buyers need to be thoughtful about their approach to an offer.

Economic Indicators are Trending Up; "Op Window" is Closing

Many market analysts are mildly bullish on the numbers coming out of the marketplace as we enter the final quarter of 2014. For me personally as a Realtor®, this was my strongest year ever. I enjoyed sales that were even better than the pre-crash heyday of the mid-2000s. Low interest rates and improving consumer confidence has made conditions for real estate ripe over the last two years. In 2011 through the middle of 2013 the first time home buyer segment was roaring. Prices were still a little depressed and rates were low so people that had been long priced out of the market saw a rare opportunity to own real estate. Economic recovery and confidence has led to a spill over into the middle and upper end markets.

Looking forward; the strong potential for the economy to swing into a more robust growth could lead to rising interest rates. If the rates get too high, they can have a negative effect on real estate sales and appreciation can slow. The "op window" for many buyers may be closing. Prices have swollen over the last two years by nearly 20%. If rates were to get closer to the 30 year average and settle in at 6%-6.5%, many entry level buyers will find themselves priced out. A strong economy is a good thing and even higher interest rates are worth having when strong job growth and higher incomes are part of the equation. Right now, buyers are in the open window of opportunity. They can lock in a low interest rate that can save them tens of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan before the improving economy drives prices and rates up.

Fear and uncertainty are what keep people from buying real estate. But no matter what, people need a place to live and buying right now for many people is just as affordable as renting. As the economic conditions improve the cost to own will rise faster than the cost of rent and that window will close as well. It is a good time to buy and a good time to sell.  

This was published by Kiplinger this month:

By David Payne

The economy looks better than was previously thought: Look for about 3.5% growth at an annual rate in the third quarter, driven by motor vehicle sales, business equipment, exports and nonresidential construction. A likely upward revision of second-quarter growth to near 5.0% after a dismal first quarter (a -2.1% growth rate) is also likely. In the fourth quarter and into 2015, growth should settle down to a 3.0% rate. That would mean average GDP this year would be about 2.2% over the average for 2013.

Setting the stage for more sustained growth in coming months: After wringing out inflation, disposable income grew at a strong 4.0% annualized rate from December 2013 through July 2014. Consumer confidence is at its highest level since before the recession. Motor vehicle sales in July hit their highest level in over eight years. An index of manufacturing activity points to strongly expanding output. New orders for business equipment have climbed 13 percent at an annual rate since May, indicating strength in business investment spending. Plus, hiring is on the rise, layoffs are scarce (indicated by a very low rate of initial unemployment claims since May), and retail sales have rebounded.

And growth may accelerate more dramatically through 2015. Improving business confidence could push investment growth back up. Consumer spending and confidence remain below what would be considered normal levels by the standards of past economic expansions. As job growth returns and consumers feel more secure, more robust income and spending increases may well be triggered, pushing second-half growth over the expected 3% pace. While that happening in what remains of this year is an outside chance, it’s a good bet that in 2015 such a virtuous cycle will kick in.

There is a slight possibility that rising interest rates next year could have a mild depressive effect, knocking growth down from an above-average (better than a 3%) rate to a simply average (2.5%) pace. For now, however, we expect that the likely small increase of a quarter- or half-percentage point in rates won’t have much impact on GDP growth.