Late Winter Slows Showings

We have had some late winter weather that still persists and the constant threat of snow seems to have kept many away from touring listed properties. All of my listings saw a substantial fall off over the last two weeks beginning with the the snowy weather in the middle of last month. We shall see if the snowy and chilly weather is the real cause or whether their is some other more diabolical market condition developing. My gut is that the sketchy weather was the real culprit.

Tomorrow and the next several days will be chilly by March standard to be sure, but the great yellow orb will be blazing bright across the late winter sky. I think that will bring the masses out to house hunt.

I read an interesting article in the Columbian today that cited rents in our area (Vancouver) are at or very near the same level as Seattle for a typical two bedroom apartment. We are well ahead of Portland which averages $1300 to our $1650. Ouch! I didn't see that coming, or did I? Portland has been on a red hot apartment building binge adding more than 13,000 units in recent months. Vancouver is also on a bit of a building binge, but units in Vancouver have not all come online yet.

For resale real estate, this bodes well as high rents tend to chase people towards ownership. Why rent if you can own for less? I think this could lead to a bit of a buyer's resurgence as spring awakens. That will keep our housing market humming along for the rest of the year. Inventory is still technically tight, but levels have been increasing slowly over the last 8-12 months and soon there will be a more 'normal' level of inventory with market absorption rates coming in at 4-6 months. Nice and healthy.

Let's see if this sunshine filled weekend proves me right, or if I have to start worrying about the spring.

Spring has Sprung... Real Estate should follow...

Yes it is spring and the real estate market generally likes the springtime! People start thinking about moving. Buyers want to get out and look at the homes on a nice spring day. Sellers want to get their house on the market before everyone else does. The cycle repeats in some form or another every single year.

The market tend to warm up in the spring. This spring seems to have the added braking effect of interest rate creep. Yes those pesky rates have been inching higher and that can take a bite out of the buyer's wallet. But I don't think that will stop the market from doing its fresh spring dance. Inventory should increase a bit and buyers may jump in as well.

I still feel strongly that 2018 will be a much more modest market in terms of price appreciation. The tug of higher rates will likely keep things under a sustainable growth pattern. Vancouver is bringing hundreds and hundreds of new apartment units to market over the next couple of years and that will ease some pressure on housing in general.

The real factor in whether this local market can continue to sustain solid growth will be int he job arena. Will the area continue to add good paying jobs across a diverse sector of business? If so we will continue to see a great and healthy real estate market. If not, then things will slow down abruptly.

The market is showing signs of a slight softening, not a pull back mind just a slowing in the rate of price appreciation. Buyers with tight budgets need to make their move now as the double jeopardy of rising prices and rising rates in in play.

Things are looking healthy and bright for 2018.

What will March Bring Us?

March may be a pivotal month for local real estate. Inventory has remained fairly tight at all but the very top of the market. All price ranges except the lowest ranges have seen pressure go from hot to warm over the last 6-9 months. With interest rates creeping higher and inventory tight it seems we are in for a period of closer to neutral conditions in the price ranges above 120% of median.

Buyers are not as willing to take property as is as they were last year and sellers are showing a little bit of a willingness to soften prices in that upper half of the market. March can be a launchpad for the spring listing season if the weather is decent. Locally weather does seem to play a role in the listing count. If we have a typical March the question begging for an answer is this: How many new listings will come online, and how will they match up with new buyers?

If we see a large increase in inventory and buyers remain at the same levels I believe we will encounter a flattening in the price appreciation curve. Buyers will start to get rate hiked out of the market putting a little more pressure on sellers that have been enjoying a robust advantage over the last three years.

No one really knows exactly how much inventory will enter the market this spring, but March is a solid indicator of how the spring season will play out as the year rolls on. I am hoping for a bit more inventory than we had last year. Preferably not too much more as rising rates will thin the herd of buyers a little and we don't need prices to fall, just to ease off the throttle a bit. I get the feeling that is what we just might get.

Open House Season is Upon Us

Well my friends it is March! But I trust you already figured that out. March here in the Pacific Northwest is a very fickle month. It can be an extension of winter or an entrance for spring. Sometimes it's both. In real estate it tends to be the month that things begin to pick up in advance of the traditional summer home buying season.

For sellers it is time to start prepping for that spring curb appeal. My lawnmower has spent the last 4 months hibernating in the garage; but at some point this month, it will likely make its first appearance of the year. Springtime tends to get people in a good mood. Buyers that have been frustrated with the tight inventory and multiple offers on overprice listings may start to soften up and start looking again.

Who doesn't like taking a spring drive to look at houses on that first sunny and warm weekend? I love that first true Spring day. We had a tickle last month when 60° popped up in the thermometer. But March can and may bring us an extended stretch of nice weather. That will bring the buyers out of the dark-gloomy-funk they tend to fall into in Winter.

Sellers still need to exercise basic principles in real estate marketing even in this "seller's" market. The better that house shows, the more likely it will fetch the highest possible price. The buyers will come out of the cave, and sellers need to be ready. Get that mower ready for the first warm weekend and spruce up that bleak winter yard. Spring is coming and real estate waits for no one. Get ready we will sell some houses this year!

Three B's of Real Estate; Balmy Brings Buyers

Why does real estate almost always perk up in the springtime? I believe it can be traced to the three B's of real estate. Yes it is in the title; Balmy Brings Buyers. Once the weather turns from cold, wet, snowy, etc. to warm and pleasant everyone tends to perk up. People are more optimistic. They seem happy. The pleasant change to a cozy tone in the climate works wonders for the soul.

I do not think it is mere coincidence that this time of year produces a rush of new buyers to the market. For prospective sellers; this is absolutely the very best time to hit the market with a new listing. A fair portion of the real estate market is driven by families moving up from that starter home to a larger home that can accommodate a growing family. These families often prefer to make their move during the summer when school is out. Offering in May or June leads to a closing in the summer.

As a buyer it is critical to take preparation for a blast of new competitors. Our local market is on fire right now and well priced homes are selling quickly, often with multiple offers above asking. Buyers do have a silver lining in the dark cloud of competition. Homes that are a little tired tend to sit a bit longer. A light fixer can still be had at decent price.

Buyers also should remember that rising prices is lousy when you are make that offer, but it is great when you close because now that rising price is feeding the buyer with golden equity. Equity appreciation is one of the cornerstones of the real estate value proposition. I find many buyers are still stuck in that 2009-2011 low price mentality and they are shooting themselves in the foot. Every time they miss out on an opportunity by being rejected or outbid they will find the prices edging up. In the end they will pay more for less.

The moral of this tale is to get out and soak up this great spring weather while driving around with your favorite Realtor, looking at wonderful houses.

Balmy Brings Buyers :)

Early Spring Often Sets the Tone

Looking back over the years I find that the early part of spring has proven to be a pretty good Nostradamus act for the real estate market. Like the famous 16th Century prognosticator, the indications are not 100% accurate and may require a little creative imagination to confirm.But in general if sales and new listings get a early spring bump the rest of the summer selling season tends to do well. Of course the market has many economic influences such as interest rates, legislation, overall economy, etc.

So my anecdotal view is that this spring is starting off quite nicely. Bare in mind that the industry experts are suggesting a more modest level of growth in values this year in contrast with 2013 which was quite robust. I am seeing well priced properties selling quickly and at very near or even over full price. Overpriced listings are not selling or are getting low offers closer to market value. We are not seeing the bid it up to the moon craziness of 2005-2007. Buyers are shrewd and seem to do a good job of sniffing out a deal when they see it or coming in soft on an overpriced listing.

This market still seems to favor the turn key move in ready homes. Light fixers or extremely dated homes take much more time to sell. Heavy fixers however, that are not financable are selling quickly as investors seek to find properties in a market with tight inventory.

All of this bodes well for the forthcoming months that are considered "prime time" for real estate. I am looking forward to helping many families find their ideal home in this solid and seemingly stable market.