Mount Vista Area Revisited

I took some photos of a new listing yesterday on the north side of Mount Vista. This was down near the bottom of the hill. I wasn't expecting any kind of view as the home was nearly at the bottom of the north side of Mount Vista.

This house however was well positioned for a view, the question was simply whether the local trees and other houses were to allow it. To my surprise and delight the home has a very respectable view of the mighty Mount Saint Helens.

From the front yard there is no indication of any view. From the back yard you have a peek-a-boo view of the mountain. Once you make you way upstairs however, that peek-a-boo becomes a 90% unobstructed view! Both the Master Bedroom and a large bonus room over the garage offer this excellent view.

Now I'll be clear, this is not a sweeping vista like the properties I have listed in Colorado Ridge. But this is a nice 2200 SF home in a very tidy neighborhood priced well under $400k. So any clean view of one of our big volcanoes is huge bonus in this price range.

All over Clark County we have homes with what I call "sleeper views". You walk in, not expecting any kind of vista and then BAM! there it is. I love it when that happens :)

Latest Market Trends

Data from RMLS

The real estate market continues to pluck along at a nice healthy pace. Although prices are not rising nearly as fast this year as they did last year conditions remain healthy. Part of the reason resale homes are seeing a big of a flat spot in the otherwise upward curve, is the influx of new home construction. Prices seem to be leveling off but slightly rising and that bodes well for the long term prognosis.

The chart at right shows the median and average sales price in the greater Portland-Vancouver metro area since 2012. the first half of 2013 saw a spike in pricing and then a flat spot and we seem to be nudging back on the upswing again. Pricing will be limited in its ability to surge based on a variety of other economic factors. Most notably is the fact that the economy in general is not exactly booming.

Data from RMLS

The chart to the left shows the year over year change in median price. This is a direct comparison to pricing exactly one year earlier. Overall the future looks promising for real estate values in general. Interest rates remain favorable and as the broad economic conditions improve the housing market will be able to open up a little more. This will be especially welcome in the mid to high end price ranges that are still just a little flat. Buyers looking to get into the entry level may find a highly competitive marketplace with multiple offers and above asking prices.

It is a very good time to be buying or selling real estate.

St. Paddy's is here and so is the Spring Market!

That venerable March holiday that brings out the Irish in all us is just around the Corner. This is a time to start thinking about the Spring real estate bump. St. Patrick's Day is not just a green beer holiday party. it signals the early tingles of Spring. The Vernal Equinox is just a few days after the Celtic Celebration The temperature begins to warm, the rains turn to showers, and the sun decides to hang out for more than a peek-a-boo moment. People start thinking about going outside. Driving the old hot rod or walking in the park. And they start looking at homes.

Here in the Pacific Northwest; the early portion of spring can be a fickle time for weather. It is an ideal time to start your real estate adventure. Listing a home in March can be quite successful as discussed in this post from two weeks ago. For buyer getting the process started early is also a good idea. As the month ends and April begins a surge of new listings will appear on the Market. The buyers that started early have the upper hand over those that dive in late. Either they secured their dream home before the "rush" or they eliminated homes, styles, features and neighborhoods they don't like and can concentrate on what they want and like. These buyers can pull the trigger when the spot the right house.

There is more to Real Estate Spring Fever than just the weather. Spring Fever catches all of us. The home and garden shows start up, the Farmer's Market and a whole slew of spring activities that get people thinking about their own home and perhaps new homes they would like to have. This is a great time to start looking at house to buy and or list a home for sale.

Why Listing a Home in March Works

In most real estate markets there is a sales curve that peaks in the summer months and bottoms out in the dead dark of winter. I believe that this cycle is as mental as it is anything else. People tend to be less active in the winter, especially in northern latitudes with cold and miserable weather. It is no surprise that e-commerce performs well in the winter and bricks and mortar retail does not with the notable exception of December holidays.

Information data and chart sourced from RMLS

Our real estate market locally has a modest sales spike in the summer months of roughly 10% above the annual monthly average and about 10% under in the middle of winter. That represents a total swing of roughly 20%. In some markets where winter weather is truly brutal, I would imagine the spread is significantly greater and in sunny SoCal it is probably a flatter curve. The chart above shows this annual trend with a notable exception in 2010 where the fall off came early. The 2013 curve was a more dramatic seasonal curve than the statistical average I compiled since 2001.  The 2011 curve is very typical when compared to most of the years since 2001. The 2013 curve is more like one I would expect to see in severe winter climates like the upper Midwest.

I think the best way to wrap your arms around this is to break the home buyers into two very broad classes. Those highly motivated to buy with external pressure and those buying because they can. So the first group is motivated by things such as a job transfer, loss of job, a new baby on the way, divorce, etc. This is external pressure and that makes someone willing to trudge through a foot of snow in the cold misery of January to look at houses or deal with the inconvenience of listing at a time they would rather stay indoors and visit with family.

The latter category is someone with a new job with higher income and maybe they think, "Hey, we can finally afford that dream house on five acres". Or perhaps they are empty-nesters looking to downsize. These buyers and sellers are much more likely to list or start the buying process when it is convenient. They are less likely to brave the wild elements of January looking at houses.

Anther reason there is a spike in sales in the summer is that families with school age children prefer to move over summer vacation when the kids are out school. This is especially true if the children will be changing schools after the move.

In a real estate market like this one; the biggest driver has been lack of inventory in that under median price range. When inventory increases that will relieve some of the pressure and could stabilize prices. If a seller has a home that is a little less than ideal; this is the time to list. This market is driven right now by move in ready, clean condition, updated properties. If a listing is a little outside those ideal parameters, the best way to sell it is in a market with less competition. As more listings come on the market toward May, the house can lose value and or position against superior properties that become available. March is a great way to tap into the "spring fever" of home buying a little ahead of the market. This is the time to get that slightly out of favor listing in front of buyers before a wave of potentially more desirable properties arrive on the scene.

If a seller has that perfect updated, move in ready median priced listing, then sometimes waiting till April can be a smart move so as to tap the increase in buyers actively looking that occurs in mid to late spring. Of course one way to get it both ways is to list in March at a slightly high price, gauge activity, get feedback and either sell at a high price or build a strategy based on the feedback and activity in March and April to position the listing ideally for May and June.

March Madness is amazing for college basketball and can be equally so for real estate.

Chilly Weather Means Prep for Vacant Listings

We have some legitimate cold weather arriving this weekend that may include temps down into the single digits. Homeowners that have vacant property whether it is for sale or not need to be prepared for this outbreak of cold. If the home has the furnace and or power off then a full winterization by a professional is a good idea. If the power and heat are on then do it yourself is pretty simple. Wrapping exterior pipes, water supply to house off and faucets open, etc. The Seattle Times has some tips for do it yourself winter prep on a vacant house.

I have a very vivid memory of showing a very expensive home in Camas, Washington in December of 2009, the last time I had a temperature below 10 degrees. This gorgeous home had water flowing out of the walls and onto the walkway at the front door which had become an impassable ice skating rink. Thousands and thousands of dollars worth of damage was done and for a couple of hundred bucks in prep would have been avoided. Needless to say my client did not buy that house.

When selling a vacant house this time of year, be sure to do a little winter prep in the front yard to maintain good curb appeal and safety. These are good tips for occupied homes as well. Keep the snow cleared on the walkways and if needed throw some salt down to keep the ice at bay.

If you are out and about hunting for your next house please use caution out there. It is not likely that the temperature will rise above freezing over the next several days. The air is dry so it may feel warmer than it is. around any corner could be an icy spot. Caution is advised.

Bundle up and enjoy the winter wonderland.

Retire to Washington

Washington State is not the first state you think of when pondering the exodus of retirees to "fairer" locales. You might think of the warmer sun belt states like Arizona and Florida. But Washington offers a unique combination of favorable taxes for seniors, a variety of climates from dry to wet and mild to wild. Washington offers its qualifying seniors a significant reduction in property taxes. There is no state income tax. Southwest Washington really hits the spot, because for those who like to shop and spend money the very nearby Oregon has no sales tax. A trip to the Oregon coast is easy and inexpensive.

Many retirees in the area keep two inexpensive (or expensive depending on their finances) homes. One in Washington State and another in California or Arizona. They fly south for the winter in November and return to our more tolerable climate in the late spring. usually it is better to claim Washington as the "home" state since we have favorable tax conditions for seniors. Although Washington is not the TOP rated state for tax friendly status, it would be when considering the live in Washington, play in Oregon angle offered by Southwest Washington.

Vancouver offers the glorious beauty of the west side of the Cascades with a moderate amount of rain and very modest snow. East of the Cascades delivers much more sunshine but also has more drastic swings in temperature and much more snow in the winter. Southwest Washington also offers close proximity to the aforementioned Oregon Coast and the metropolitan Portland area.

Speaking of the coast, Southwest Washington has the lock on reasonably priced beach property. The Oregon coast is world famous, largely because the state of Oregon spends millions of dollars promoting it. The southern Washington coast is equally spectacular but offers amazing values in property and taxation. This is especially true when compared to Oregon which is very tax unfriendly according to several prominent sources such as Money Magazine and Kiplinger.

Sourced from Kiplinger.com

Our southern neighbor, Oregon is rated as "least tax-friendly" for seniors while we enjoy the "tax friendly" status. Our base property taxes are much lower than Oregon and many seniors qualify for one of four property tax reduction programs. Sales tax is a much less intrusive tax than income tax for middle and upper income seniors. Arizona rated higher than Washington for tax friendly status but actually depending on income and spending habits we might be better than them as well. 

Now that all this taxation benefits are out of the way, we can consider other factors. The well known fact that Washington state is absolutely gorgeous is a strong draw. We have four distinct seasons here in Clark County but none are severe. That is tough to find anywhere on Earth. It seems like the proverbial slam dunk for a retirees to move here. And many of them are moving here. So there you have it, Washington State is the best northern state to retire to. Start packing.

Local Dentist offers Mouth Guards for Student Athletes

Here is a community service announcement. One of my followers has created this press release which could be valuable for our local student athletes and their parents. As a local Realtor I enjoy be able to pass on valuable information to our community. Thanks to Tim for the information.

With the start of the new school year, Vancouver dentist Dr. Bowyer is giving away free mouth guards to student-athletes.  “Every year, I treat children with chipped or breaking teeth from their student activities, which can easily be prevented with consistent use of a mouth guard,” says Dr. Bowyer.

The National Youth Sports Safety Foundation estimates that more than three million teeth and over would be knocked out each year without the use of mouth guards.  This includes preventing over 200,000 serious dental injuries.  Student athletes are over 60 times more likely to suffer a dental injury when not using a mouth guard.  The most common injuries are flying elbows to the mouths, and impact from sports equipment.  Traditional contact sports, such as football, boxing, and martial arts require mouth guards.  Mouth guards should also be used in non-contact sports, including basketball, baseball, soccer, and wrestling.

Likewise, mouth guards help protect athletes from concussions.  Upon impact, a mouth guard helps an athlete clench the jaw muscles, thereby helping to stabilize the skull and neck.  Mouth guards distribute and dissipate the force of an impact, minimizing the severity of traumatic injury to the head and soft tissue.

Finally, a common mistake students make with mouth guards is infrequent replacement and sanitization.  Unsanitary mouth guards increase the intensity of mouth cuts and abrasions, increasing chances of infection from bacteria, yeast, and fungi that mouth guards routinely collect.  Also, mouth guards should be replaced regularly, or when edges become sharp or jagged, or if the mouth guard no long fits and promotes oral irritation.

“I can not stress enough the importance of athletes wearing a mouth guard, especially for those wearing braces” says Dr. Bowyer.  “Parents should consider a mouth guard as mandatory safety equipment.”

From Sept. 4th to Sept 30^th (M-TH), Dr. Boywer is providing these free mouth guards to anyone who stops by his office – children and adults alike.  Dr. Bowyer’s office is located at 300 SE 120^th Ave, Suite 700, Vancouver, WA  98683, 360-253-2640.

About Dr. Bowyer: Dr.  Bowyer is a Vancouver native.  He earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Washington, and a dentistry degree from the Columbia University School of Dental and Oral Surgery.  After completing his second year, Dr. Bowyer was one of two students selected  to participate in an honors program at the 5^th Avenue Manhattan Dental Clinic.    Dr. Bowyer has taught at Clark College School of Hygiene, and has taught as an assistant to 1-3 year dental students.  Dr. Bowyer has been awarded from the Academy of General Dentistry and honored by Columbia University as the Best General Practitioner in his class.  Dr. Bowyer is a member of the American Dental Association, Washington State Dental Society, American Academy of General Dentistry, AAOI (Academy of Osseointegration) and the American Academy of Cosmetic Dentistry.

July's MLS sales figures for Clark County were stellar

The numbers are in for July from our local multiple listing service and they look great. Looking back first at last year, July 2012 was healthy but not stellar. Inventory was starting to tighten up and demand was strong enough in certain segments to generate multiple offers. 499 transactions were closed in July 2012 for Clark County against this year's total of 696. We are still well off the frenzied pace of 2005-2007 but clearly the best we've seen since "the crash".

Evaluating numbers is never as easy as just looking at the one or two "big" stats. Often people, including some Realtors®, look at median price or total unit sales as an indicator that all market segments are moving equally. Just because the median price is up 21% by no means suggests that any random house that was sold last year is now worth 21% more this year. The real estate market is very complex with neighborhood fluctuations, locations, home size, price range, and styles often performing independent of each other based on market demand or supply.

The chart below shows the "big" over all county stats for this local market and then breaks the numbers down a little further to show some broad segment trends. The big question for John and Sally homeowner is often geared towards, "can I sell MY house right now"? If John and Sally own a condo they may not be much better off this year than they were last year in market appreciation. The condo market is almost always late to recover.

Last year the sales figures were heaviest in the entry level market. Those $125-150k three bedroom ramblers were being snatched up and as such, supply tightened up and prices soared. This year that market segment was priced high enough that demand slowed down a little, but the middle market surged with larger four bedroom houses seeing significant increases in unit sales. Those bigger mid sized homes saw a massive 59% increase in sales but a more modest 13% increase in median price.

Last year I said that the bottom has to tighten up first before the middle can take off. Well, the bottom did tighten up and now the middle is taking off this year. That is driving the increase in median price. The smaller two bedroom houses have peaked with only a 1.3% increase in median price despite a large surge in unit sales of 46%. Even the bread and butter three bedroom market that was red hot last year, is showing preliminary indications that the buyers are nearing their limits. The 18% increase in median against a large surge of 29% in units sold is still quite robust, however. The sellers in the entry level often move up to that bigger house and as they sell their 2 and 3 bedroom homes they move into the middle market. The 59% increase in unit sales in that segment will likely produce more impressive median increases when we check the numbers in a few months.

Of course this discussion has to hinge on keeping other complex variables favorable, such as the general economy, jobs and the ever critical mortgage rates.

The big takeaway for homeowners is the fact that their home that may have been upside down or too tight to sell, could in fact be a seller today. Contact your favorite Realtor® for a Comparative Market Analysis on your home. Most offer this service for no charge, I certainly will.

   
         

Keeping an Eye on the Market

I wrote this article for the Equity Northwest Properties Blog this morning and decided to re-post it here for you.

There is a huge inventory of homes that were purchased at or near the height of the market from 2004-2008. The average homeowner moves every seven years so many of these homeowners that bought at the peak are getting towards that "time to move" point. The problem is that values for many of them are still not quite high enough to clear the loan obligation. Many of these would be sellers are sitting on the fence patiently waiting for the market to yield the price they need to exit clean.

For Realtors® and sellers this is a 'watch the market' time. We enjoyed a robust 8-12% gain in values over the last twelve months. If this upward pricing trend continues, many homeowners will finally exit the proverbial tunnel and be able to sell their home and clear all liens and fees.

Our local market and many other markets around the nation are seeing tight inventory, especially in the entry level price range. This is driving an increase in price. Low interest rates are also helping to keep demand relatively high. As these 'top of the market' homes become viable to sell again, we will see less of a squeeze on inventory. This can be a bit precarious, too much inventory may cause prices to flatten out if demand does not keep up. So long as interest rates remain at or below 5%, I believe the market will continue its growth, even if inventory levels fatten up. A combination of higher rates in the more normal range of 6-7% and bulkier inventory would likely cause the prices to stop rising or at least severely slow down.

What does all this really mean? For buyers that really want to own, rather than rent, now is truly the time to buy. Rates are low and there is no guarantee they will remain low. Prices are rising but still relatively low. For sellers, things are a little dicey at the moment. Selling now could be the genius move of the decade or it could be one of those "oops" I should have waited situations. No one really knows what this fragile market will do. If you are a owner occupant seller and you actually want to move then selling as soon as possible makes sense. If you are selling based on an investment then you are forced to gamble a bit. Wait or sell? For an investor I would wait a little longer but of course that may or may not pan out. In the end, I believe real estate should be a long term investment and waiting will rarely cost you money, it may just cost you some time.

Sellers and would be sellers should remain 'market engaged'. In other words, pay attention. Things are moving in generally positive directions and the opportunity to sell will present itself soon. Potential sellers should stay in contact with their favorite agent or broker and 'keep and eye on the market'.

Relocating? Rent for a few months first?

Many people find themselves involved in a real estate relocation. Perhaps a job change, promotion, or family related issues. In these situations there are times when the relocation is to an area that is unfamiliar and far away. It can be very difficult to gauge neighborhoods and services in the short visits as buyers look for a new home.

It may serve buyers well to rent a home or apartment for six months to a year keeping the bulk of their items in storage while they learn the area. An advantage to renting is mobility. Once you are ready to move, you give notice, pack up, and leave. Selling a home however is a more enduring process. I believe that it is wise to carefully evaluate the schools, shopping, proximity to work, neighborhood condition and lifestyle, before buying a home. This may take several months to really understand.

Many people however, may be like me. I hate moving. If this is the case, then it becomes paramount for the buyer to consult a true buyer's agent. Many real estate agents don't like showing homes and dealing with the buyer's side of a real estate transaction. Ironically, they are often the first type of agent a prospective buyer meets. The buyer is sitting out in front of a house with the 'Acme Real Estate' company sign and the call the number. That agent may be the classic 'listing' agent.

If buyers are relocating to a 'strange new world' it is advised that they interview a few agents and find one that is willing to spend some time working with them, showing multiple homes in a variety of neighborhoods best suited to their needs. In the end this helps to ensure that best possible purchase and the highest chance of many happy years in their new home.