St. Paddy's is here and so is the Spring Market!

That venerable March holiday that brings out the Irish in all us is just around the Corner. This is a time to start thinking about the Spring real estate bump. St. Patrick's Day is not just a green beer holiday party. it signals the early tingles of Spring. The Vernal Equinox is just a few days after the Celtic Celebration The temperature begins to warm, the rains turn to showers, and the sun decides to hang out for more than a peek-a-boo moment. People start thinking about going outside. Driving the old hot rod or walking in the park. And they start looking at homes.

Here in the Pacific Northwest; the early portion of spring can be a fickle time for weather. It is an ideal time to start your real estate adventure. Listing a home in March can be quite successful as discussed in this post from two weeks ago. For buyer getting the process started early is also a good idea. As the month ends and April begins a surge of new listings will appear on the Market. The buyers that started early have the upper hand over those that dive in late. Either they secured their dream home before the "rush" or they eliminated homes, styles, features and neighborhoods they don't like and can concentrate on what they want and like. These buyers can pull the trigger when the spot the right house.

There is more to Real Estate Spring Fever than just the weather. Spring Fever catches all of us. The home and garden shows start up, the Farmer's Market and a whole slew of spring activities that get people thinking about their own home and perhaps new homes they would like to have. This is a great time to start looking at house to buy and or list a home for sale.

Finding the Elusive Livable $100k Home

So the bank said they'd loan you a 100 large. Well then, let's find you a home. What was that? You are really hoping for a single family detached house? Hmm, you are not going to make this easy, are you?

My first question is this; How do you feel about central Alabama? The Crimson Tide is ranked number one in the AP football poll. Perhaps Greater Detroit, the Motor City? No, you really want to stay here in the 'Couv'. Yeah, I understand, America's Vancouver is pretty tough to beat. Do you have any money in the bank, say another 75 grand? No? OK.

I am helping a wonderful client right now to find a house that can be financed by the VA (which means livable BTW) and our budget is in the $100k range with maybe just a little bit of wiggle room. This is a challenging task, but not as impossible as you might think. I have already found several homes that would be a little tough to get FHA or VA financing on, but are livable and under that $100,000 price point. These mind you are very small houses. "Cozy", we like to say in the real estate world.

This was listed at $99,500, It sold really fast!
Multiple offers over list price but still close to $100k

Vancouver USA has a nearly 200 year history and was quite robust during WWII. After the infamous attack on Pearl Harbor, the entire Fruit Valley neighborhood was erected in 1942 by the federal government to house civilian ship builders. These were small houses with roughly 700-1000 square feet. These homes can be had for reasonable prices. There are other areas with smaller homes, but I think Fruit Valley has the largest collection of affordable houses in the 'Couv'. The neighborhood has gone through a renaissance of sorts over the last ten years. There is the additional bridge over the rail yard at 39th Street. The park was renovated and quite a bit of modern new construction has been added.

Fruit Valley also offers close proximity to Downtown and the Port of Vancouver. My hunt for a $100k house definitely starts here. But Fruit Valley is not our only choice. One may prefer a more ancient home. There are 100 year old homes in Rose Village that can be had for a song. And if I look really close I may find a spattering of homes across many neighborhoods in that $100k range. Those are often hiding in pocket somewhere.

This is listed at $85,000. It is very nice and tidy inside.
It needs siding, but is still financable

Once our general economy starts to really roll again, the $100,000 house will disappear. Maybe forever. The full mortgage payment with taxes and insurance on a house like this is around $700. That is still about $300 less than you would rent it for. I am amazed that we don't have an even larger rush of entry level home buyers snatching these up.

These types of homes may not be as comfortable and modern as a comparable sized condo, but they will have better resale in general and do not have HOA dues. A condo with $200 a month HOA dues is like adding $40,000 to the price. Yes I said 40 large! The mortgage payment on $40,000 is about $200 a month. So a $80,000 condo with $200 a month HOA dues has the same payment as a house that costs $120,000. These little charming homes in America's Vancouver have provided families with shelter for over 70 years. These are a great opportunity for first time home buyers or even a first time investor. All hail, the $100,000 house, the Holy Grail of Real Estate! Eureka!

Rates up a FULL point over last year.

The all time record low rates of this past spring are now in the history books. We have seen them creep up by a full point over the last few months. But it is important to understand that historically speaking any rate under 6% is a good rate. That said 4.5% is a GREAT rate. If this upward trend continues however, this extended period of extra buying opportunity will finally come to a close.

Higher rates will eliminate some people from the dream of owning a home. For others it will limit the size, type or neighborhood of their next home. Yet there are still buyers out there waiting. Waiting for what? Even higher rates, bigger payments or worse another decade of renting?

Over the last thirty years rates have averaged much higher than today's rates in the mid 4s. The chart below shows the average mortgage rate on a 30 year fixed loan since 1975. Our current rates are still the best in over forty years.

The last three years have truly been a golden era for buyers in the American home market. Prices have been low as we recover from the "crash" of 2008-2009. Rates have been at or very near ALL TIME record lows for the last two years. This golden era has already lasted twice as long as I expected it to and something will have to give. Either rates will spike, prices will spike or a little of both. The bottom line remains that this is a great opportunity to take advantage of a rare combination of low rates and low prices. First time home buyers can get into a well priced home with payments lower than rent.

If an entry level homeowner has some equity, they can sell their small house and move up to a big house while prices are still low and rates are low. I think many home owners sitting on a house they bought in 2005-2007 are waiting for values to rise. Some have to, because they need equity. Others are sitting on equity and are waiting for a better price. The problem with the latter is that it may be seriously flawed logic. If prices rise 10% over the next year they will get an extra $15,000 for their current $150k home. But that move up larger house currently listed at $250k will likely rise $25,000. So in essence they are stepping over the proverbial quarter to pick up that proverbial dime. And as they wait, they run the risk of also having a higher interest rate next year on that new larger and more expensive home. If that happens they could spend tens of thousands of dollars in additional interest over the life of the new loan. 

The empty nester looking to downsize can still take advantage of these low rates now. Even if they get a little less cash out of their larger home now, they may save tens of thousands in interest on that final home for retirement with our current low rates. I cannot over estimate this old saying, "You will feel the sting of high interest long after the joy of a low price has faded away." Conversely, you will enjoy the benefit of low interest, long after the sting of a high price has faded away. Price is fleeting, interest is forever, well at my age it is forever anyway. 

Based on the chart above, some of us may not even be alive next time we have rates in the threes. These current mortgage rates are being suppressed by the federal government's willingness to buy the mortgages at the low rate. They are doing this to prop up the real estate market while the economy recovers. Once the fed backs away from that policy, and they will, rates will likely return to a more "normal" 6-7%.

This is a pivotal moment in the real estate for anyone considering a purchase, a sale or both. How many times have you looked back in life and said, "If I only had done this, or that..." You know, like buying Apple stock when it was five bucks a share in the mid 90s. Now is one of those times in real estate but the bottom has been revealed and things appear to be moving up. As I said in my book, 'Don't Panic', "Buy low and sell high, and that is right now, my friends."

  

Real estate is a local business.

(I wrote this for the Equity Northwest Blog and thought I would re-post it here.)

How often have you heard the expression, "real estate is about location, location, location"? If we are to take this idea at face value, then real estate is a local business. Local companies are much more in tune with the neighborhood trends, community developments, municipal and county regulatory and legislative agendas, and other important facts about the area. It stands to reason that working with a local real estate professional in a local company is a good idea.

This blog has been established to get good real estate information out to the public. We often post tips about home care, and local market trends. Today we will talk about the importance of local businesses and local professionals.

When choosing a real estate agent, buyers ought to think about the local aspect of real estate. Will this person understand the immediate market they are interested in? Is the company they represent a locally owned company or a national franchise? If the latter, then are they at least locally focused. Purchasing a home is most likely the single most expensive thing most people will ever buy. It seems obvious that care and attention to whom trust is placed to represent that transaction is paramount.
Local is critical because the difference between a "house" and a "home" is local. Building a home from a house is done with family, friends, neighborhoods, schools, churches, clubs and services. Local, local, local is as important as location, location, location because knowing the right location requires a local awareness.

If moving from Portland, OR buyers should consider carefully before using a dual licensed Portland agent for a Clark County home purchase. Although Portland is just across the river, it is a state away. Real estate in Oregon is conducted in a similar fashion but there are many different facets and nuanced subtleties that can be significant enough to bring about pause.

It's been more than a decade since Gene Thompson left one of America's largest national real estate firms to open his own brokerage here in Vancouver U.S.A. Equity Northwest Properties has always adhered to Gene's idea that real estate is a local business. One of the advantages to large national chains has always been resources. But national chains are typically run from a corporate office in some far away place. Local branches are often force fed a staple diet of the latest corporate headquarters buzz program. As we turned the century over to a new millennium many of those "resources" began to become widely accessible through the ever present internet technology. Now smaller, local companies have similar access. The resource edge offered by the big national brokerages has eroded significantly since 2000.

That has allowed companies like Equity Northwest Properties to thrive. Local Realtors® working local markets with a local corporate policy is pure bliss. This local minded business model has allowed Gene's company to evolve into one of the region's largest independent brokerages with offices in Vancouver, Camas and Kelso. Between the three offices are affiliations with the two largest multiple listing services in the Pacific Northwest, both the RMLS and NWMLS. That makes Equity a very local company with a regional reach. This is a powerful combination.

In conclusion buyers and sellers should strongly consider the local aspect of real estate when deciding upon whom they will hire to represent them. The best decisions are made with the best information and real estate information is local to the core.

July's MLS sales figures for Clark County were stellar

The numbers are in for July from our local multiple listing service and they look great. Looking back first at last year, July 2012 was healthy but not stellar. Inventory was starting to tighten up and demand was strong enough in certain segments to generate multiple offers. 499 transactions were closed in July 2012 for Clark County against this year's total of 696. We are still well off the frenzied pace of 2005-2007 but clearly the best we've seen since "the crash".

Evaluating numbers is never as easy as just looking at the one or two "big" stats. Often people, including some Realtors®, look at median price or total unit sales as an indicator that all market segments are moving equally. Just because the median price is up 21% by no means suggests that any random house that was sold last year is now worth 21% more this year. The real estate market is very complex with neighborhood fluctuations, locations, home size, price range, and styles often performing independent of each other based on market demand or supply.

The chart below shows the "big" over all county stats for this local market and then breaks the numbers down a little further to show some broad segment trends. The big question for John and Sally homeowner is often geared towards, "can I sell MY house right now"? If John and Sally own a condo they may not be much better off this year than they were last year in market appreciation. The condo market is almost always late to recover.

Last year the sales figures were heaviest in the entry level market. Those $125-150k three bedroom ramblers were being snatched up and as such, supply tightened up and prices soared. This year that market segment was priced high enough that demand slowed down a little, but the middle market surged with larger four bedroom houses seeing significant increases in unit sales. Those bigger mid sized homes saw a massive 59% increase in sales but a more modest 13% increase in median price.

Last year I said that the bottom has to tighten up first before the middle can take off. Well, the bottom did tighten up and now the middle is taking off this year. That is driving the increase in median price. The smaller two bedroom houses have peaked with only a 1.3% increase in median price despite a large surge in unit sales of 46%. Even the bread and butter three bedroom market that was red hot last year, is showing preliminary indications that the buyers are nearing their limits. The 18% increase in median against a large surge of 29% in units sold is still quite robust, however. The sellers in the entry level often move up to that bigger house and as they sell their 2 and 3 bedroom homes they move into the middle market. The 59% increase in unit sales in that segment will likely produce more impressive median increases when we check the numbers in a few months.

Of course this discussion has to hinge on keeping other complex variables favorable, such as the general economy, jobs and the ever critical mortgage rates.

The big takeaway for homeowners is the fact that their home that may have been upside down or too tight to sell, could in fact be a seller today. Contact your favorite Realtor® for a Comparative Market Analysis on your home. Most offer this service for no charge, I certainly will.

   
         

Keeping an Eye on the Market

I wrote this article for the Equity Northwest Properties Blog this morning and decided to re-post it here for you.

There is a huge inventory of homes that were purchased at or near the height of the market from 2004-2008. The average homeowner moves every seven years so many of these homeowners that bought at the peak are getting towards that "time to move" point. The problem is that values for many of them are still not quite high enough to clear the loan obligation. Many of these would be sellers are sitting on the fence patiently waiting for the market to yield the price they need to exit clean.

For Realtors® and sellers this is a 'watch the market' time. We enjoyed a robust 8-12% gain in values over the last twelve months. If this upward pricing trend continues, many homeowners will finally exit the proverbial tunnel and be able to sell their home and clear all liens and fees.

Our local market and many other markets around the nation are seeing tight inventory, especially in the entry level price range. This is driving an increase in price. Low interest rates are also helping to keep demand relatively high. As these 'top of the market' homes become viable to sell again, we will see less of a squeeze on inventory. This can be a bit precarious, too much inventory may cause prices to flatten out if demand does not keep up. So long as interest rates remain at or below 5%, I believe the market will continue its growth, even if inventory levels fatten up. A combination of higher rates in the more normal range of 6-7% and bulkier inventory would likely cause the prices to stop rising or at least severely slow down.

What does all this really mean? For buyers that really want to own, rather than rent, now is truly the time to buy. Rates are low and there is no guarantee they will remain low. Prices are rising but still relatively low. For sellers, things are a little dicey at the moment. Selling now could be the genius move of the decade or it could be one of those "oops" I should have waited situations. No one really knows what this fragile market will do. If you are a owner occupant seller and you actually want to move then selling as soon as possible makes sense. If you are selling based on an investment then you are forced to gamble a bit. Wait or sell? For an investor I would wait a little longer but of course that may or may not pan out. In the end, I believe real estate should be a long term investment and waiting will rarely cost you money, it may just cost you some time.

Sellers and would be sellers should remain 'market engaged'. In other words, pay attention. Things are moving in generally positive directions and the opportunity to sell will present itself soon. Potential sellers should stay in contact with their favorite agent or broker and 'keep and eye on the market'.